The world is not made up only of dry facts
“The world is not made up only of dry facts (what we might call data today); rather, these facts are glued together by an intricate web of cause-effect relationships” — Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, The book of Why (1)
E.g. to do a good run/race I need good shoes, but I also need to exercise, practice and develop a running skill. But, on the day of the race I need to make sure I’m not sick, have gotten the right nutrient balance, understand how to navigate the GPS on my watch, brought the right supplements and wear the right clothing etc..
Judea Pearl suggests that in order for us to understand how the world works we first need a theory of why things happen. E.g. if I’m to be successful at running these things need to be in order ..
But he argues that most data models don’t have this theory in place. They are just trying to make assumptions about what is happening based on the correlations they see in the data it has access to.
The result is a world without connections where there is an assumption that if A happens (by correlation) B will happen to.
Pearl argues that in order for us to make the most out of the data and machines we invest in we first have to create our own model for how things work (he recommends a Causal Diagram (2)), then with a map of the known relationships and force of influence between things we also have a recipe for what data we need to collect.
Visit this article on how to get started by making the simplest possible causal diagram for your situation / market etc.: https://everythingnewisdangerous.medium.com/how-to-make-a-system-map-in-the-simplest-possible-way-a8cce6b7acae
Sources and further reading:
(1). Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, The Book of Why, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why
(2). Helge Tennø, How to make a system map (in the simplest possible way), https://everythingnewisdangerous.medium.com/how-to-make-a-system-map-in-the-simplest-possible-way-a8cce6b7acae
